Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.